What is this?
NBA Game Similarity searches basketball history to find the most similar game β or season β to what you're watching right now. It's Shazam for basketball games.
The Three Tools
Now Playing β Picks up a live game and finds the 5 most similar historical games through the same quarter. Early in Q1, team history is blended in. By Q3, the actual scoring pattern takes over completely.
Today's Matchups β Before tip-off, compares each team's rolling stats (pts/game, FG%, win%, recent form) against historical matchups to find the most similar games ever played between two teams in similar states.
Season Pace β Pick any team and find which historical seasons were on the same trajectory at this point in the year. Shows how those seasons ended.
How Similarity Works
Each game is converted into a 74-dimensional vector β 74 numbers capturing everything measurable:
- Final score β home and away points (2 dims)
- Quarter scores β Q1βQ4 plus OT for each team (10 dims)
- Shooting efficiency β FG%, 3P%, FT% for each team (6 dims)
- Rebounding β offensive and defensive rebounds per team (4 dims)
- Assists, turnovers, steals, blocks β per team (8 dims)
- Special flags β overtime, blowout, triple-double, 50-point game (18 dims)
- Game flow β margin, halftime lead, quarter winners, momentum (20 dims)
- Arena & game length β home team hash, regulation/OT (2 dims)
Similarity is Euclidean distance between two vectors. 100% = identical, 0% = maximally different. In practice, 85%+ is a very strong match.
Early Game: The Blend
From analysis of 72,776 games, the running score after Q1 explains only 21% of the final margin variance (RΒ²=0.212). The blend transitions as information accumulates:
- Q1 in progress: 70% team state, 30% game state
- After Q1: 50% team state, 50% game state
- Halftime: 25% team state, 75% game state
- After Q3: 10% team state, 90% game state
- Final: 100% game state
Data Sources
- Basketball Reference β NBA/BAA box scores 1946β47 through 2025β26 (72,776 games)
- All eras in a single consistent format β one source, no stitching
- Quarter scores, FG%/3P%/FT%, rebounds, assists, turnovers, steals, blocks, player event detection
Era Consistency
The RΒ² of Q1 score vs final margin is remarkably stable across eras: 0.20 in 1947, 0.23 in 2026. The game's fundamental structure hasn't changed. This means a 1962 Celtics game can be meaningfully compared to a 2024 Warriors game β with the data completeness indicator flagging when pre-1973 sparse stats reduce match quality.